Has the freight rate dropped after the holiday? Data shows that sea freight rates may continue to remain high with a high probability

The ocean carrier is determined to keep the container spot freight rate at a high level for as long as possible, hoping to lock in annual contract customers at a rate

 of 100% or higher.

　　 After the beginning of the Chinese New Year, the spot price showed no obvious signs of decline. Those shippers who hope that the freight rate will be adjusted 

after the Spring Festival, now have to bite the bullet and agree to a higher contract price instead of continuing to take risks in the spot market.

        Commenting on the severe market situation faced by shippers, Gordon Downes, chief executive of the digital contract platform NewYork Shipping Exchange, 

said that he does not expect freight rates to fall "in a few years" after the COVID-19 pandemic. . "In fact, I think the industry is at the beginning of a structural upward 

cycle." He added.

　　 On February 19, the latest Baltic Freight Index (FBX) Asian to Nordic spot freight rate rose 3% from the previous week to $8,430/40 feet, up 145% from the beginning

 of December, and up 428% from the same period last year.

        In addition, spot shippers have to pay a large number of additional fees, including container storage fees and expedited booking fees. British importers pay an average 

of US$2,000 per box — some carriers privately call this "departure surcharge."Toto Dirgantoro, chairman of the Asian Shippers Alliance, complained this week: “The current 

strategy of shipping companies is to accept bookings based on profitability or long-term strategic importance. Small and medium shippers are doing this. To be sacrificed."

　　 Although there is a shortage of transportation due to the quarantine of domestic tow truck drivers before the Spring Festival, it is clear that the transportation company 

still has a large amount of previous backlogs that need to be cleared before starting to chase orders.

　　 A British freight forwarder recently expressed indignantly that the "2M" alliance cancelled the MSC Erica's Sunday sailing plan at the last minute, "it is more to keep the 

capacity tight, not to improve the reliability of the shipping schedule."

　　 In addition, according to FBX data, spot prices from Asia to Eastern Mediterranean ports rose by 3% this week to $7,893 per 40 feet, a 270% increase from 12 months ago. 

On February 19, the single-day freight rate reached US$7,969.

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on February 19, the Shanghai Export Container Composite Index was 2875.93, an increase of 1.8% 

from the previous period.

　SCFI: The freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharge) from Shanghai to the European basic port market was 4281 US dollars/TEU, up 4.2% from the previous 

period. The freight rate on the Mediterranean route dropped slightly due to the fall in cargo volume during the Spring Festival. The freight rate (ocean and ocean freight 

surcharge) to the Mediterranean basic port market was US$4,252/TEU, down 0.7% from the previous period. The freight rate in the North American route market remained

 near the previous level.

On the same hot trans-Pacific trade route, the demand for capacity from Asia to the United States is inevitable: According to the data of the Signal platform of the Port of 

Los Angeles on the 19th, the ships arriving this week loaded 185,000 TEU of imported goods, compared with the same period last year. An increase of 331%.

However, container ships berthed in Los Angeles and Long Beach need to wait an average of 8.3 days before unloading, which is longer than the previous 8.0 days; it is 

reported that 35-40 ships berth at anchorages and wait every day. Therefore, the carrier is looking for other ports. .

FBX said that after several weeks of stagnation, the spot freight rate from Asia to the West Coast of the United States set a new record of $4,654 per 40 feet last week, an 

increase of 7% from the previous week. On February 19, the single-day freight rate reached a record high of 4,709 U.S. dollars.

　　 East Coast ports also started to rise after a brief decline, reaching USD 5,703 per 40 feet (week) in the past week – an increase of 8.0% over the previous week; on 

February 19, the single-day freight rate reached USD 5,960.

　　 "Continued peaks and congestion have caused some US retailers to worry that Easter-related goods will not arrive in time, and shipping companies report that all 

ships are fully booked by the end of the month," said Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos.